13．"Hypotheses，"said Medawarin 1964，"are imaginative and inspirational in character"； they are"adventures of the mind"．He was arguing in favour of the position taken by Karl Popper that the nature of scientific method is hypothetico-deductive and not，as is generally believed，inductive．
The myth（误区） of scientific method is that it is inductive：that the formulation of scientific theory starts with the basic，raw evidence of the senses-simple，fair，unprejudiced observation．Out of these sensory data-commonly referred to as"facts"-generalisations will form．The myth is that from a disorderly collection of factual information an orderly，relevant theory will somehow come out．However，the starting point of induction is an impossible one．
There is no such thing as an unprejudiced observation．Every act of observation we make is a function of what we have seen or otherwise experienced in the past．All scientific work of an experimental or exploratory nature starts with some expectation about the outcome．This expectation is a hypothesis．Hypotheses provide the motivation for the inquiry（探究），and influence the method．It is in the light of an expectation that some observations are held to be relevant and some irrelevant，that one method is chosen and others abandoned，that some experiments are conducted and others are not．
Hypotheses arise by guesswork，or by inspiration，but having been started they can and must be tested thoroughly，using the appropriate method．If the predictions you make as a result of deducing certain consequences from your hypothesis are not shown to be correct then you abandon or adjust your hypothesis．If the predictions turn out to be correct then your hypothesis has been supported and may be kept until such time as some further test shows it not to be correct．Once you have arrived at your hypothesis，which is a product of your imagination，you then move on to a strictly logical and thorough process，based upon deductive argument-therefore the term"hypothetico-deductive"．
So don't worry if you have some idea of what your results will tell you before you even begin to collect data； there are no scientists in existence who really wait until they have all the evidence in front of them before they try to work out what it might possibly mean．The closest we ever get to this situation is when something happens by accident； but even then the researcher has to make a hypothesis to be tested before being sure that，for example，a medicine might prove to be a successful solution to bacterial（细菌） infection．
The hypothetico-deductive method describes the logical approach to much research work，but it does not describe the psychological behaviour that brings it about．The psychological behaviour is a much more complicated process-involving guesses，reworkings，corrections，and above all inspiration，in the deductive as well as the hypothetic component．However，describing the logical approach is like writing the final thesis（毕业论文） or published papers of research work．These theses and papers have been，quite properly，organised into a more logical order so that the worth of the output may be evaluated independently of the behavioural processes by which it was obtained．It is the difference，for example between the academic papers with which Crick and Watson demonstrated the structure of the DNA molecule（分子） and the fascinating book The Double Helix in which Watson （1968）described how they did it．From this point of view，the scientific method may more usefully be thought of as a way of writing up research rather than as a way of carrying it out．
65．What is right about the deductive method and the inductive method according to the author？D
A．They cannot exist in a research at the same time．
B．The former one is of greater importance than the latter．
C．The latter one is more scientific than the former one．
D．The former is closer to the nature of scientific research．
66．Which of the following best supports the author's main opinion shown in paragraph 2？B
A．Usually facts are more convincing than predictions．
B．People always observe based on what they have seen or experienced．
C．It is impossible to generalize disorder facts into orderly theories．
D．People all begin scientific work with the observation of evidences．
67．Which of the following about a hypothesis is right？A
A．It functions as a guide in the process of a scientific research．
B．It works as a means that can help make unprejudiced observations．
C．It is an expectation unrelated to guesswork and inspiration．
D．It is a prediction which will be arrived at sooner or later．
68．According to the author，a good scientific research is a processC．
A．starting from details and ending in generalisations
B．where observations play more role than expectations do
C．where hypothesis are gradually tested before finally approved
D．which cannot be started before enough evidences are collected
69．What does the last sentence of the passage mean？B
A．The hypothetico-deductive method plays an important role in describing a research．
B．The scientific method is more a way of describing research than a way of doing it．
C．Describing the logical approach is harder than describing the psychological behaviour．
D．Writing up a scientific research paper is as difficult as carrying out the research．
70．Which of the following can best serve as the title of the passage？D
A．Generalisations of Scientific Theory
B．Hypotheses of Scientific Research．
C．The Psychological Behaviour
D．The Scientific Method．
分析 本文讲述了科学研究的两种方法--演绎法和归纳法，并叙述了它们的区别和用途．
解答 65．D．细节理解题．由第一段the nature of scientific method is hypothetico-deductive and not，as is generally believed，inductive，科学方法的本质是--演绎法，而不是一般认为的归纳法，故选D．
66．B．理解推断题．由第二段that the formulation of scientific theory starts with the basic，raw evidence of the senses-simple，fair，unprejudiced observation可知作者认为科学理论的形成是从基础、原始的证据和公正客观的观察开始的，因此B选项人们从自身经历为基础观察正确，故选B．
67．A．理解推断题．由第三段This expectation is a hypothesis．Hypotheses provide the motivation for the inquiry（探究），and influence the method，可知假设法是一种预期，它为探究提供动力，并且影响着方法，因此起着引领的作用，故选A．
68．C．理解推断题．由第四段If the predictions you make as a result of deducing certain consequences from your hypothesis are not shown to be correct then you abandon or adjust your hypothesis．If the predictions turn out to be correct then your hypothesis has been supported and may be kept until such time as some further test shows it not to be correct，如果你预测的结果推断得到的某些后果没有显示你的假设是正确的，那么你要放弃或调整演绎结论，如果预测被证明是正确的那么你的假设要保持到进行一些进一步的测试来显示它是正确的，可知在最终证明正确之间，中间要进行许多测试，故选C．
69．B．理解推断题．由最后一句句意：科学的方法可能更被认为是一种研究的写作方法，而不是进行研究一种方式可知选B．
70．D．主旨归纳题．由文章内容可知，本文讲述了科学研究的两种方法--演绎法和归纳法，故选D．
点评 本篇文章难点在推断题上．推断题要以表面文字为前提，以具体事实为依据进行推理，做出判断．这种推理方式比较直接，考生只要弄清事实，即可结合上下文推断出合理的结论．
